Regression Discontinuity diagnostics reveal statistical anomalies in Turkish elections
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
On Statistical Models for Regression Diagnostics
In regression diagnostics, the case deletion model (CDM) and the mean shift outlier model (MSOM) are commonly used in practice. In this paper we show that the estimates of CDM and MSOM are equal in a wide class of statistical models, which include LSE, MLE, Bayesian estimate and M-estimate in linear and nonlinear regression models; MLE in generalized linear models and exponential family nonline...
متن کاملRegression-Discontinuity Designs and Popular Elections: Implications of Pro-Incumbent Bias in Close U.S. House Races
The regression-discontinuity (RD) design has experienced a resurgence of interest in many fields, including political science. Following David Lee’s pioneering work on the incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections, many scholars have begun to apply RD designs to popular elections. Under certain assumptions, the RD design yields causal estimates that approach the gold standard of randomized e...
متن کاملEstimating the Cost of Social-Democratic Government by Regression-Discontinuity Analysis of Close Elections
This paper employs a regression-discontinuity (RD) design to ascertain the effects of socialdemocratic government on fiscal policy (budget deficits) and monetary policy (as reflected in inflation) and on currency and bond prices (i.e., exchange rates and yields). The RD design exploits the essentially random application of a treatment—in this case, social-democratic parties gaining government—n...
متن کاملThe Impact of Unionization on Establishment Closure: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Representation Elections
Using data on more than 27,000 establishments (1983-1999) in the United States, this paper exploits an institutional feature of the union organizing process in order to generate an estimate of the causal effect of unionization on the probability of establishment closure. In the U.S., most establishments become “unionized” as a partial consequence of a secret ballot election among the workers. I...
متن کاملDiscontinuity Detection in Regression Surfaces
We consider the problem of locating jumps in regression surfaces. A jump detection algorithm is suggested based on local least squares estimation. This method requires O(Nk) computations, where N is the sample size and k is the window width of the neighborhood. This property makes it possible to handle large data sets. The conditions imposed on the jump location curves, the jump surfaces and th...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Electoral Studies
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0261-3794
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.09.005